Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 86.1%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 minuten geleden
8 sep 26, 22:26 UTC30 sep 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?
PolymarketWeights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SSI release their first model?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Any model counts.
- Image model, TTS model, a main-line GPT model, any model.
- Obviously, if they release weights with randomly initialized values that won't count but besides that, anything goes.
- Could be an open-weights model or a proprietary model or updates to model series (like GPT-6.1)
- The ChatGPT Image 2.5 model released today will not count
Open markten
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 125,4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,9 mln.
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 156,3K
- 24u volume
- € 26,1K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will OpenAI release a new model before October??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 86% per 21 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will OpenAI release a new model before October? afgewikkeld?
- Will OpenAI release a new model before October? wordt naar verwachting op 30 september 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will OpenAI release a new model before October? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Any model counts.