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Verouderd15 mrt 26, 01:12 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Announcing the Corrigibility Research Fund" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketRegels
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our LLM policy.) is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markten
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.3pt61.4%
- ChatGPT22.8%
- Grok-2.0pt5.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 89,2K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-1.0pt62.6%
- 2027-1.5pt30.3%
- 2026-2.5pt7.1%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,-4.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+7.0pt79%
- claude-opus-5-max+2.0pt5%
- claude-opus-5-high-2.0pt4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202797%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 202794%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,4 mln.
POLYMARKETGemini 4.0 released by which date?
- November 30-3.0pt87%
- October 31-5.0pt72%
- September 30-18.0pt11%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 94% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will "New LessWrong Editor! (Also, an update to our..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.