Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 53%
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd6 aug 26, 00:41 UTC6 aug 27, 00:39 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?
Manifold MarketsWill closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X
- Partner Market on open-source models: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/will-opensource-models-be-more-or-l
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on my judgement; feel free to ask me questions in the comments or post supporting material.
- Resolves YES if MORE aligned.
- Resolves NO if LESS aligned.
Open markten
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 63,6K
- 24u volume
- € 63,6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,5 mln.
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 27,4K
- 24u volume
- € 27,4K
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 53% per 15 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? afgewikkeld?
- Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? wordt naar verwachting op 6 augustus 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X