Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingOther harms 100%Koploper van 3 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd21 mrt 26, 01:22 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
100%
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Insider Trading Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027?
Manifold MarketsJane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
KalshiRegels
From now until the end of 2026, will prediction market manipulation of any sort result in verified harm? Market manipulation requires traders with invested stakes in a market attempting to sway the outcome of the market.
- A commonly cited example are supposed "assassination markets" which could result in traders committing murder in order to win a bet.
- This is one way "the named outcome" could resolve.
- This market is a twin to this market on Insider Trading harms.
- The primary difference between the two is that Insider Trading denotes important figures involved with the resolution in some manner, trading in accordance.
- By contrast, Market Manipulation is done by random traders, who can be reasonably presumed at the time of market creation to have little to no relevant sway on the resolution.
Open markten
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.6pt92%
- Yes+1.6pt8%
- Totaal volume
- € 18,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 260,8K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027+11.0pt22.9%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+2.0pt21.1%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+9.0pt21.1%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt87%
- December 15,83%
- November 30,+2.0pt80%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt87%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt84%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIWill the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- Before Jan 1, 202895%
- Before Sep 1, 2027-1.0pt57%
- Before April 1, 2027+4.0pt50%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 58-0.5pt10%
- Above 60+0.5pt10%
- Above 62-1.0pt9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
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- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
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- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Senate passes Clarity Act by which date?
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- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- Holtec Nuclear IPO Closing Market Cap
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst Other harms op 100% per 17 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: From now until the end of 2026, will prediction market manipulation of any sort result in verified harm? Market manipulation requires traders with invested stakes in a market attempting to sway the outcome of the market.