Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNolan (2026) 97.6%
Voorspellers
29
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd23 jul 26, 19:54 UTC31 dec 27, 20:51 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year?
KalshiWill Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year? [Kalshi]
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KalshiWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on which adaptation of Homer's The Odyssey is preferred by the Manifold community, subject to the following rules:
- Grok's Release Condition: Elon Musk pledged that the named outcome will produce a "full-length movie" of The Odyssey by the end of 2026.
- If a feature-length (at least 40 minutes long) adaptation of The Odyssey generated by the named outcome is not made publicly viewable on X or another platform by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, this market will automatically resolve to Nolan (2026).
- Community Preference Poll: If the the named outcome adaptation is successfully released by the deadline, the creator will pin a poll in the comments of this market (or link to a dedicated Manifold poll) asking: "Which version of The Odyssey do you prefer: Christopher Nolan's (2026) or the named outcome's?"
- Voting & Final Resolution: The poll will run for 7 days.
Open markten
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey??
- Manifold Markets prijst Nolan (2026) op 98% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? afgewikkeld?
- Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria