Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 94.6%
Voorspellers
32
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd23 apr 24, 17:56 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
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Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Will Zuck and LeCun release all model variants of Llama 4? Or will they at least hide the most powerful ones?
- Update 2026-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting an additional year before resolving to ensure the Llama 4 Behemoth model variant is not released before resolving.
Open markten
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 802,6K
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Totaal volume
- € 736,5K
- 24u volume
- € 585,6K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 95% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight? afgewikkeld?
- Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Will Zuck and LeCun release all model variants of Llama 4? Or will they at least hide the most powerful ones?