Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling1.75T+ 100%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
15
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd25 jun 26, 15:21 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
100%
100%
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Llama 4 be fully open-weight?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWill any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
PolymarketRegels
Total parameters
- At market creation (2026-06-25), the largest open weight model is DeepSeek V4 by DeepSeek, with 1.6T total parameters.
- This market will only consider models that are "pretty good", and will exclude exceedingly large but useless models.
- For example, someone initializing 100T weights at random and uploading the weights online would not count for the purpose of this market.
Open markten
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst 1.75T+ op 100% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Total parameters