Will Iran experience political change before September 2026?
PolitiekOne-OffEntertainmentMusicMiddle East1mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitVerouderde gegevens
Gegevens van 19 jul 2026, 20:20 UTC · beleid pm-quality-2
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 27.4%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 dagen geleden
Verouderd17 jul 26, 22:1931 aug 26, 23:59
Trends
Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
Yes27%
Volumetrend
$2517 jul3d aan data19 jul
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to Yes if, between the time of this market's creation and August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, any of the following events occur in Iran:
- Change in Supreme Leadership: Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to hold the office of Supreme Leader of Iran (due to death, resignation, ouster, or incapacitation) and is succeeded by another individual, or the office of Supreme Leader is officially abolished.
- Change in Presidency: Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to hold the office of President of Iran (due to death, resignation, impeachment, or ouster).
- Regime Overthrow or Systemic Change: The official governing system of Iran (the Islamic Republic) is overthrown, dissolved, or replaced; or a new constitution is formally adopted that fundamentally alters the governing structure of the country (e.g., abolishing the theocratic system).
- If none of these specific events are officially confirmed by credible global news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, or BBC) to have occurred prior to September 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No.