PolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
December 31 23%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Marktkwaliteit
53 / 100
Gemiddelde kwaliteit24u volume
€ 70,6
Liquiditeit
€ 10,2K
Gemiddelde liquiditeitSpread
3.0 pt
Gematigde spreadReacties
357
7d wijziging
+3.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 minuten geleden
9 okt 25, 19:17 UTC1 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
0%
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
FutuurIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?
Manifold MarketsWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
PolymarketRegels
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages.
- A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
- For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
- Ook beschikbaar op Futuur — Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? · December 31 31%
