Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 68.9%
Voorspellers
2
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd4 mei 26, 17:16 UTC31 mrt 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will China alumina production exceed 85 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Guinea bauxite exports exceed 140 Mt as of October 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill US Natural Gas Production exceed 3,500,000 million cubic feet in August 2026?
ForecastExWill US Natural Gas Production exceed 3,400,000 million cubic feet in December 2026?
ForecastExRegels
This market resolves YES if Indonesia's primary aluminum (smelter output) production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceeds 1.5 million tonnes.
- Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 ESDM monthly output print (which publishes with a ~1-2 month lag) is available before resolution.
- Indonesia is one step further down the supply chain from alumina: bauxite -> alumina -> primary aluminum.
- Domestic primary aluminum capacity comes mostly from Inalum's Kuala Tanjung smelter (~250-300 kt/yr) plus expansion projects under the post-2023 industrial-localisation push.
- Crossing 1.5 Mt for calendar 2027 would represent a meaningful ramp from the ~250 kt 2023 baseline and would suggest the bauxite-to-smelter strategy is producing real material rather than just intermediate alumina.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
