Will "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Verouderd30 jul 26, 17:27 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post I think alignment work is more promising than control work is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
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POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
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- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 89% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Will "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.