Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 74.5%
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4
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd4 mei 26, 20:22 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegels
Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-31, the High Bandwidth Memory 3e (HBM3e) supply situation has publicly transitioned from "shortage" to "balanced" or "oversupply" per any of the following publicly accessible sources:
- A public statement from a major HBM supplier (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron) in an earnings call transcript or press release indicating HBM3e supply meets or exceeds demand
- A public report from a research organization (Epoch AI, CSET, Brookings, government statistical agency) indicating HBM3e shortage has cleared
- TrendForce or similar publicly published market-summary data (free-tier reports only — NOT paywalled subscription content) indicating supply ≥ demand
- Source of truth: publicly accessible earnings call transcripts (SEC EDGAR / company IR pages), public press releases, free-tier industry reports.
- Tie-breaker rule: if there are conflicting public statements from different suppliers, the market resolves based on the predominance of public evidence as of 2026-12-31.
Open markten
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 12,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 92,5K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt38%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+3.0pt36%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt32%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,-4.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202797%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 202794%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,4 mln.
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T22.1%
- $1.75T–$2.0T21.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T-4.5pt15.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+18.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+10.0pt54%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
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- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 75% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? afgewikkeld?
- Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-31, the High Bandwidth Memory 3e (HBM3e) supply situation has publicly transitioned from "shortage" to "balanced" or "oversupply" per any of the following publicly accessible sources: