Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 85.5%
Voorspellers
59
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd5 apr 24, 14:04 UTC1 jan 30, 21:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2030, will an AI system be able to solve compositional problems of arbitrary depth?
Manifold MarketsWill GPT-5 be able to get gold on the International Mathematical Olympiad?
Manifold MarketsWill GPT-5 be able to accurately compare weights of lead and feathers?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Twitter user VictorTaelin tweeted the following: (original post)
- "A simple puzzle GPTs will NEVER solve: As a good programmer, I like isolating issues in the simplest form.
- So, whenever you find yourself trying to explain why GPTs will never reach AGI - just show them this prompt.
- It is a braindead question that most children should be able to read, learn and solve in a minute; yet, all existing AIs fail miserably.
- Try it! It is also a great proof that GPTs have 0 reasoning capabilities outside of their training set, and that they'll will never develop new science.
- After all, if the average 15yo destroys you in any given intellectual task, I won't put much faith in you solving cancer.
