Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2028 83.5%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
39
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd3 mrt 24, 23:10 UTC1 jan 29, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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Every month for around the last 10 years, Jane Street (a trading firm) has released a difficult puzzle on their website: https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/archive/.
- Right now, the best publicly accessible AI (GPT-4 or Gemini Ultra) is not very good at this.
- I tried running the February puzzle through both and GPT-4 gave a few definitions and then said it was complex (though it did correctly simulate it afterward, even though the problem asked for an exact answer), and Gemini Ultra wasn't even close.
- During which year will a publicly accessible AI be able to solve at least 6 of the 12 puzzles released during the year? (Resolves yes during each year this happens.
- Multiple years can resolve YES)
- Clarifications