Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2028 83.5%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
39
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd3 mrt 24, 23:10 UTC1 jan 29, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?
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PolymarketRegels
Every month for around the last 10 years, Jane Street (a trading firm) has released a difficult puzzle on their website: https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/archive/.
- Right now, the best publicly accessible AI (GPT-4 or Gemini Ultra) is not very good at this.
- I tried running the February puzzle through both and GPT-4 gave a few definitions and then said it was complex (though it did correctly simulate it afterward, even though the problem asked for an exact answer), and Gemini Ultra wasn't even close.
- During which year will a publicly accessible AI be able to solve at least 6 of the 12 puzzles released during the year? (Resolves yes during each year this happens.
- Multiple years can resolve YES)
- Clarifications
Open markten
AIKALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%-1.0pt97%
- Above 2.65%+21.0pt94%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 116K
- 24u volume
- € 99,3K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.6pt70.6%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt14.7%
- Gemini-0.3pt6.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,8 mln.
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba-5.0pt69%
- Moonshot-5.5pt14%
- Z.ai-2.4pt6%
+8 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt87%
- December 15,83%
- November 30,+2.0pt80%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+3.0pt87.1%
- Moonshot-2.9pt8.9%
- Z.ai-0.8pt2%
+8 extra uitkomsten
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+31.0pt54%
- Above 5.6%+6.0pt12%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2028 op 84% per 17 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles? afgewikkeld?
- When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Every month for around the last 10 years, Jane Street (a trading firm) has released a difficult puzzle on their website: https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/archive/.