Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 80%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 19 minuten geleden
20 jan 26, 22:37 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
Martin Kleppmann (author of Designing Data-Intensive Applications) argues that AI will bring formal verification into the software engineering mainstream.
- His thesis: LLMs are getting good at writing proof scripts, which could dramatically reduce the cost of formal verification—historically prohibitive (the seL4 microkernel required 20 person-years and 200,000 lines of Isabelle for 8,700 lines of C).
- Key formal verification languages include Lean, Coq/Rocq, Isabelle, Agda, F*, and Dafny.
- Currently, these are niche tools used primarily in academia and specialized industrial applications (cryptographic protocol stacks, verified compilers, microkernels).
- This market tests whether AI-driven improvements will translate to widespread adoption within ~5 years.
- Resolution Criteria:
Open markten
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
- $74,250 or above99%
+77 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,4 mln.
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- $69,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $73,500 or above+18.0pt98%
- $73,000 or above+13.0pt98%
+47 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes91.6%
- No8.4%
- Totaal volume
- € 244,6K
- 24u volume
- € 243,3K
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- Minneapolis+68.0pt99%
- Miami+22.0pt99%
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- € 236,3K
KALSHINasdaq-100 price on Sep 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- 29,220 or above99%
- 28,810 or above98%
- 28,860 or above98%
+97 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 206,1K
- 24u volume
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 80% per 17 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? afgewikkeld?
- Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Martin Kleppmann (author of Designing Data-Intensive Applications) argues that AI will bring formal verification into the software engineering mainstream.