Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 78.2%
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18
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd4 apr 26, 09:42 UTC31 dec 27, 10:38 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketUS charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
LimitlessStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiRegels
Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The payments should be a part of what I deem to be a normalized process in the post-war period for this to resolve YES.
- To determine if the conflict ends, I will use the resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by or of a similar market with expiration dates beyond December 31st.
- If there is no such substantially similar market, and the existing Polymarket answers resolve to NO, I will use a consensus of credible reporting to determine roughly when the conflict ends.
- [link preview]
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 363K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 9,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 245,5K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 62,8 mln.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 78% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist? afgewikkeld?
- Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.