Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 50.8%
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62
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 16 uur geleden
Verouderd24 sep 23, 01:46 UTC2 jan 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
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PolymarketRegels
Eliezer uses an idiosyncratic phraseology and tends to assume a lot of shared context from his conversation partner.
- This works fine with other enfranchised rationalists, but makes it difficult for him to be understood when speaking to a general audience.
- For example, in the Destiny vs. Eliezer debate, Destiny took care to use common words and simple, concise descriptions.
- Eliezer by contrast would use various terms-of-art and subculture references that many audience members (and even Destiny himself) wouldn't understand, and would give long rambling vague answers that made people think he was dodging the question.
- If I find a relatively technical discussion of Eliezer's, lasting at least a half hour, where he does a better job of communicating in a way that won't be off-putting to most educated English speakers, I'll resolve this to YES.
- Otherwise it resolves to NO.
Open markten
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+3 extra uitkomsten
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 51% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Eliezer uses an idiosyncratic phraseology and tends to assume a lot of shared context from his conversation partner.