Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 09:52 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 63.6%
Voorspellers
62
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd24 sep 23, 01:46 UTC2 jan 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
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Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Eliezer uses an idiosyncratic phraseology and tends to assume a lot of shared context from his conversation partner.
- This works fine with other enfranchised rationalists, but makes it difficult for him to be understood when speaking to a general audience.
- For example, in the Destiny vs. Eliezer debate, Destiny took care to use common words and simple, concise descriptions.
- Eliezer by contrast would use various terms-of-art and subculture references that many audience members (and even Destiny himself) wouldn't understand, and would give long rambling vague answers that made people think he was dodging the question.
- If I find a relatively technical discussion of Eliezer's, lasting at least a half hour, where he does a better job of communicating in a way that won't be off-putting to most educated English speakers, I'll resolve this to YES.
- Otherwise it resolves to NO.
