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  3. Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
Manifold Markets

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

RegelgevingOne-OffHealth & MedicineChina4j
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsGeen KYC
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Manifold Markets
2026 33%
Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers

2

Vraagtype

multiple choice

Methodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Brontype

Voorspelling

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt eergisteren

Verouderd
13 jun 26, 23:0731 dec 30, 23:59

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

202633%

Regels

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This is an independent multiple-choice market.
  • Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
  • Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
  • Resolution Rules:
  • YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.

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Regels

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This is an independent multiple-choice market.
  • Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
  • Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
  • Resolution Rules:
  • YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.