Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
One-OffGezondheid en geneeskundeChina4jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2030 69.2%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
3
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd13 jun 26, 23:07 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This is an independent multiple-choice market.
- Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
- Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
- Resolution Rules:
- YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.