Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
GeopolitiekOne-OffMidden-OostenMisdaad en justitie4j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 20:40 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 87.4%
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110
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd20 mei 24, 17:59 UTC16 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor is seeking an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu.
- Will Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or tried for war crimes or crimes against humanity?
- It will not be sufficient for this market if an arrest is made by someone without the power to enforce the arrest or detain him (eg. an activist accosts him and says that they’re making an arrest but his security staff get him away from the activist) or for him to be tried in absentia by a court who cannot enforce any ruling.
- If Netanyahu dies without ever having been arrested, detained or tried for these crimes, the market will resolve to NO.
- I don’t think that this resolution will be subjective, but just in case some edge case happens and it is subjective, I won’t be trading on this market.
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