Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 61.5%
Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd23 feb 26, 02:14 UTC1 jan 28, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill an 11th state in the USA enact bottle deposit laws by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Maine enact a law restricting large data centers?
KalshiWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
KalshiWill South Carolina enact a refundable EITC in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves YES if any country (population >1 million) enacts legislation that explicitly taxes the use of robots, AI systems, or automation equipment, or imposes a dedicated levy on firms that automate jobs, by December 31, 2027.
- What counts: A tax specifically targeting automation/AI/robots — not general capital gains taxes, corporate taxes, or investment tax credit changes.
- South Korea's 2017 reduction of automation investment tax credits would NOT count as it was a credit reduction, not a dedicated tax.
- What doesn't count: Proposals, bills that don't pass, or taxes on AI companies (as opposed to taxes on the act of automating).
- Baseline: As of February 2026, no country has enacted a dedicated robot/automation tax.
- The EU rejected a robot tax proposal in 2017.
Open markten
EuropePOLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+1.9pt38%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 112,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,1 mln.
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+0.5pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+2.0pt82.2%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt17.8%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.5pt0%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD-3.0pt75.3%
- SPD+3.5pt24.8%
- CDU0%
+5 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No84.2%
- Yes15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 906,2K
- 24u volume
- € 45,8K
POLYMARKETBerlin State Election Winner
- Linke+4.0pt52%
- CDU-1.5pt27.4%
- AfD+1.5pt13.7%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will any country enact a robot or automation tax by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 62% per 10 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will any country enact a robot or automation tax by the end of 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will any country enact a robot or automation tax by the end of 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will any country enact a robot or automation tax by the end of 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if any country (population >1 million) enacts legislation that explicitly taxes the use of robots, AI systems, or automation equipment, or imposes a dedicated levy on firms that automate jobs, by December 31, 2027.