Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 90%
Voorspellers
14
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd21 apr 26, 22:22 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which of Anthropic and OpenAI will get more credit for the Navier-Stokes solution, in my judgement?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 2% in December 2026?
ForecastExRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if either Anthropic or OpenAI publicly announces, releases, or makes available for purchase a standardized, consumer-facing subscription plan priced at exactly US$2,000 per month.
- The plan must be available for subscription at this specific price point at any time between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from Anthropic (e.g., official blog, verified social media channels) or OpenAI (e.g., official blog, verified social media channels), or credible reporting from major technology news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, The Verge, TechCrunch) confirming the launch or availability of such a tier.
- Custom-quoted enterprise contracts, usage-based billing, or agreements that do not feature a standardized US$2,000/month subscription tier do not count toward a YES resolution.
- If no such standardized plan is introduced by either company by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to NO.
Open markten
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 132,8K
- 24u volume
- € 100,3K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 322,4K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 90% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria