Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030?

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Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030??

Manifold Markets prijst No op 68.2% per 26 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030? afgewikkeld?

Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2029 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030? afgewikkeld?

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if, before 1 January 2030, a paper published in Nature or Science lists an AI system (not a person) as first or lead author, or the journal's editorial note describes the AI as the paper's primary author.

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-3.8pt88.7%
• Anthropic+1.8pt10.3%
• OpenAI+0.5pt1%

+18 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 3,2 mln.

24u volume

€ 137,9K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt28%
• $2.0–$2.25T+3.8pt22%
• $1.5–$1.75T-2.2pt17%

+7 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+8.0pt83%
• December 15,+9.0pt82%
• November 30,-2.0pt60%

+9 extra uitkomsten

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+1.2pt55.5%
• Gemini-3.4pt31.8%
• ChatGPT-0.2pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+3.0pt53.5%
• Google-3.0pt36.4%
• OpenAI-0.3pt6.1%

+12 extra uitkomsten

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202794%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt92%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

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