Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 96.1%
Voorspellers
12
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd4 jul 23, 18:58 UTC2 jan 30, 01:16 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
If AIs are still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.
- If AIs are not around but AI(s) are because AI(s) wiped them out then this market resolves to YES.
- If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.
- Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The aggressor AI that wipes out other AIs does not necessarily need to survive.
- For example, an AI could destroy all compute on Earth, eliminating both itself and all other AIs in the process.
- The market would still resolve YES in this scenario as long as humanity survives.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 96% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If AIs are still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.