Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 62.5%
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd17 jul 26, 07:58 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will birthright citizenship stop being available in the USA before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill my friend and I stop being friends after I attend summer camp?
Manifold MarketsWill Katharina Reiche stop being the german Minister of Energy by the next regular election?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Specifically will I stop thinking it's dumb.
- My judgement.
- Note that it can be very smart and still be dumb.
- Free tier only.
- Example of it being dumb and contradicting itself:
- [image]Also, regarding fiber optic drones, "A system optimized for combat may intentionally allow a lot of slack and avoid applying excessive tension because a snapped cable is preferable to losing the drone."
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 63% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Specifically will I stop thinking it's dumb.