Will "AI pause: the case for ASAP" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

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Manifold Markets prijst No op 86.3% per 26 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will "AI pause: the case for ASAP" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?

Will "AI pause: the case for ASAP" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2028 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt Will "AI pause: the case for ASAP" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Feb 1, 2027+11.0pt94%
• Before Apr 1, 2027+4.0pt96.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+6.0pt95%

+9 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 3,5 mln.

24u volume

€ 278,8K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-3.8pt88.7%
• Anthropic+1.8pt10.3%
• OpenAI+0.5pt1%

+18 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt28%
• $2.0–$2.25T+3.8pt22%
• $1.5–$1.75T-2.2pt17%

+7 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+8.0pt83%
• December 15,+9.0pt82%
• November 30,-2.0pt60%

+9 extra uitkomsten

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude-0.1pt55.3%
• Gemini-2.4pt32.1%
• ChatGPT-0.4pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+3.0pt53.5%
• Google-3.0pt36.4%
• OpenAI-0.3pt6.1%

+12 extra uitkomsten

• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• GPT Astra 6.1+: HLE-Diamond Debut?
• Best AI this week
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 26, 2026
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?