Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 89.4%
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25
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd1 nov 25, 14:40 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will there be any scientific discovery in 2026 that will increase penis size?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO?
Manifold MarketsSOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
At EOY 2026 I will ask @Bayesian , @TimothyJohnson5c16 , @Joshua , @Ziddletwix , and @nikki whether they believe it has.
- If after a week any disagree this question will resolve NO.
- Otherwise, it will resolve YES.
- If any of the users is unreachable, they will not be taken into account for the resolution.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 89% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: At EOY 2026 I will ask @Bayesian , @TimothyJohnson5c16 , @Joshua , @Ziddletwix , and @nikki whether they believe it has.