Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 68%
Voorspellers
2
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd6 sep 26, 19:26 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?
Manifold MarketsSOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Manifold MarketsWill there be any scientific discovery in 2026 that will increase penis size?
Manifold MarketsWill Massachusetts scientific R&D jobs rise YoY?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”.
- https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/s/AoZ7CBvZcq
- [image]Resolves yes if this actually happens (the scientific discovery, regardless of whether a new model is released).
- My criteria is that this discovery (whichever field of science it applies to) must be generally considered equally or more significant than any of the Claude mathematical results Anthropic and Anthropic employees have already reported on.
- If it appears too close to tell, I will err on resolving yes.
- If multiple discoveries are reported, I will judge the most impressive one.
Open markten
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 85,3K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 184,9K
- 24u volume
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.4pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+43.3pt94%
- No-43.3pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 21,2K
- 24u volume
- € 20,3K
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.0pt78.2%
- 1.25T–1.5T-3.0pt8.9%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 68% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO? afgewikkeld?
- Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: An AI journalist recently claimed that Anthropic will release a SOTA model ahead of its IPO, with the “story built around a major scientific discovery”.