Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
In 2030 or earlier 50.6%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
In 2030 or earlier 50.6%Voorspellers
79
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd26 jan 24, 09:59 UTC2 jan 28, 22:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.
- This means that an AI mistake could have significant consequences.
- In this question I'm considering situations in which AI actions are directly causing an incident, accident or catastrophe resulting in $1 billion of damages.
- If the event causes loss of life, each death counts as $10 million of damages.
- The incident should be a direct consequence of the AI's decisions, actions or output.
- It should not have happened if the AI wasn't involved.
