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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd29 dec 22, 09:32 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill someone run DOOM on a quantum computer by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
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KalshiRegels
Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors.
- Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026?
- Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum Fourier Transform/Shor's Algorithm to count, and without pre-compilation.
- Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether a quantum computer factors a number greater than 31 by the end of 2026 (not before 2026 begins).
Open markten
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 802,6K
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Totaal volume
- € 736,5K
- 24u volume
- € 585,6K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 78% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors.