Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 66.7%
Voorspellers
18
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd1 nov 24, 15:47 UTC1 jan 50, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2050 for the market to resolve YES.
Open markten
CryptoKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 566,6K
- 24u volume
- € 548,4K
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.2pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.7pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,1 mln.
- 24u volume
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Totaal volume
- € 12,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 248,7K
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 67% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050? afgewikkeld?
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2050 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.