Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 95.9%
Voorspellers
18
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd7 jan 26, 13:22 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
Manifold MarketsNuclear war in next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran have a civil war before the start of 2028?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRegels
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any use of nuclear weapons in combat, even accidental, counts as nuclear war for the purpose of this market.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 581,3K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 55,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 96,8K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 96% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a nuclear war start over a shitty old cargo ship in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any use of nuclear weapons in combat, even accidental, counts as nuclear war for the purpose of this market.