Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 91.6%
Voorspellers
15
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 59 minuten geleden
Vertraagd7 apr 26, 15:57 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a dirty bomb be used by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be detonated in or above Canada before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill South Korea have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if at least one nuclear weapon is detonated within the internationally recognized borders of Iran at any time before January 1, 2030.
- For the purposes of this market, "nuclear weapon" is defined as any explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions (fission, fusion, or a combination thereof).
- The determination will be based on consensus reporting from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official verification from international bodies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or the United Nations.
- If there is no confirmation of such an event by the resolution date, the market will resolve to NO.
- As of April 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East involves active conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel.
