Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?
RegelgevingAIOne-OffTech2mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 57.5%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd18 mrt 26, 16:26 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a major tech company (defined as a company with market capitalization exceeding $100 billion or annual revenue exceeding $50 billion) publicly announces a pause or meaningful limitation on AI development activities due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027.
- The announcement must explicitly cite safety as the primary reason and involve a concrete action (e.g., halting training of specific models, delaying product releases, or reducing AI R&D investment).
- Statements about "prioritizing safety" or implementing safety measures without pausing development do not qualify.
- Resolution sources include official company announcements, SEC filings, press releases, and statements from company leadership reported by major news outlets.
- As of July 2024, a pause on AI development has not been realized—instead, AI companies have directed "vast investments in infrastructure to train ever-more giant AI systems".
