Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 75.4%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd10 okt 23, 17:11 UTC2 jan 29, 04:59 UTC
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[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will 14-day weather forecasts reach 60% accuracy?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 27?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Chongqing on October 27?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Beijing on October 27?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Istanbul on October 27?
PolymarketRegels
This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.
- Reaching the 60% threshold at any point and for any length of time is sufficient.
- If numerical data is not available, Metaculus will use their discretion to determine if the plotted line for either hemisphere has touched or surpassed the 60% grid line.
- The question will resolve as No if the criteria have not been met according to the information shown on the chart on January 1, 2029, regardless of any data lag.
- In the event ECMWF stops publishing this data Metaculus may select an approximately equivalent source or resolve the question as N/A.
