Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 75.4%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd10 okt 23, 17:11 UTC2 jan 29, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsHow many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
PolymarketWill the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market?
Manifold MarketsWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRegels
This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.
- Reaching the 60% threshold at any point and for any length of time is sufficient.
- If numerical data is not available, Metaculus will use their discretion to determine if the plotted line for either hemisphere has touched or surpassed the 60% grid line.
- The question will resolve as No if the criteria have not been met according to the information shown on the chart on January 1, 2029, regardless of any data lag.
- In the event ECMWF stops publishing this data Metaculus may select an approximately equivalent source or resolve the question as N/A.
Open markten
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 586,2K
- 24u volume
- € 568,4K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes86%
- No14%
- Totaal volume
- € 108,2K
- 24u volume
- € 108,2K
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 75% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.