Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingIn hiding from US/Israeli assassination 51.5%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
24
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd10 jul 26, 15:18 UTC1 jan 27, 00:59 UTC
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Or given any televised statements.
- I'll resolve it to whatever the NYT attributes the absence to, but I'll only start checking 3 months after his first public appearance, as allowance for fog of war.
- I may resolve to prob.
- Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be a split resolution between all answers invoked in the reporting sampled, not necessarily equal weight
- December 31 close date is a placeholder; creator will attempt to resolve ~3 months after Mojtaba Khamenei's first public appearance
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public??
- Manifold Markets prijst In hiding from US/Israeli assassination op 52% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? afgewikkeld?
- Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Why hasn't Mojtaba Khamenei been seen in public? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Or given any televised statements.