Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJacob Tsimerman 24.3%+6.8%Koploper van 52 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
394
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 minuten geleden
15 sep 23, 16:5831 jul 26, 3:59
Trends
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Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
Jacob Tsimerman24%
Volumetrend
$33.4k8 jul7d aan data14 jul
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Every person who wins resolves to 25% (assuming it's 4 people who split it equally, in general we split it).
- It's very silly to bet people over 25%.
- In principle the Fields Medal could be awarded to fewer than four people but that's unlikely.
- I will resolve this as soon as I find out and not do any last-minute trading before resolving it.
- Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Someone who declines a Fields Medal award will still count as a winner for resolution purposes (as occurred in 2006 with Grigori Perelman).