Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNeither by end of 2035 47%Koploper van 3 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
8
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd1 jun 26, 14:10 UTC31 dec 35, 23:00 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a crewed Mars flyby or Mars orbit mission be attempted before a crewed Mars landing mission?
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KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- Resolves to whichever party first launches a crewed spacecraft on a trajectory passing within ~50,000 km of Mars.
- "USA" includes any US-based company (SpaceX, etc.) or public agency (NASA). "China" includes CNSA or any Chinese entity.
- A landing is NOT required — a flyby trajectory with crew aboard at the time of launch is sufficient.
- Resolved by launch date.
- If a landing mission flies by Mars en route, it counts as a flyby for this purpose.