Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingOther 32.2%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
25
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd9 apr 26, 20:18 UTC31 dec 30, 21:24 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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PolymarketRegels
Resolves when I (deferring heavily to other Manifold mods/superusers who are paying more attention to this subject) am ~90% confident that Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified.
- If Satoshi is revealed to be a collaboration between multiple people, it resolves roughly to the best estimate of the % that each are responsible for Satoshi's identity.
- I will also defer to consensus reporting, the Wikipedia page, etc. For example, if the Wiki page decisively lists one individual as Satoshi Nakamoto, that would likely be sufficient to resolve, and if the NYT, WSJ, WaPo, and Guardian all put out articles saying that the drama is over and Satoshi's identity has been conclusively revealed (as the same person), that would also probably be sufficient to resolve.
- Market will be extended indefinitely until more definitive evidence emerges.
- I think there are reasons to believe that AI will be able to unearth convincing evidence within a few years, but I ultimately don't have a horse in this race.
- I've only loosely followed the drama.
