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Gegevens van 22 jun 2026, 03:43 UTC · beleid pm-quality-2
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AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact 10%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
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Verouderd30 jan 24, 2:5331 dec 50, 22:59
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AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact10%
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Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.
- Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
- The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
- In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
- AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
- Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.