Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?
One-OffPrijzenWetenschapManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 17 okt 2026, 20:40 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 93.1%
Voorspellers
14
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 57 minuten geleden
Vertraagd27 nov 22, 21:05 UTC1 jan 00, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Regels
https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902
- This market resolves YES if such an award is paid.
- (Including if the amount changes, as long as it's clearly still the same award.) This does not include his related offer of "a smaller award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing while still leaving it open."
- It resolves NO if Scott announces that scalable quantum has been conclusivly demonstrated as possible and the award is impossible to win.
- If the award is invalidated for any other reason, this resolves N/A. For a market that includes his smaller awards, see here:
