Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingPerplexity 37.6%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
5
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd3 nov 25, 14:52 UTC31 dec 35, 14:48 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which gaming companies will shut down by end 2030?
Manifold MarketsOut of these AI researchers, who is the smartest?
Manifold MarketsWhat are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketAnthropic’s valuation end of October 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to whichever company among OpenAI, Anthropic, Perplexity, or xAI ceases operations first due to bankruptcy, insolvency, or permanent shutdown.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the company, SEC filings, or major news reports from established financial media outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times).
- If multiple companies shut down simultaneously, the market resolves to the one that filed for bankruptcy or made the shutdown announcement first.
- OpenAI closed a $40 billion Series F funding round at a $300 billion valuation in April 2025, and achieved a $500B valuation milestone in October 2025.
- Anthropic raised $13 billion in Series F funding as of September 2025. xAI closed a $10 billion debt and equity fundraise in July 2025.
Open markten
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+0.6pt93%
- Yes-0.6pt7%
- Totaal volume
- € 19,1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 210,9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.0pt80%
- December 15,-4.5pt78%
- November 30,-16.5pt61%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,9 mln.
KALSHIWho will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Paramount+16.0pt96.9%
- None before July 2027-16.0pt2.1%
- Netflix-2.0pt1%
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt24.8%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-1.0pt20.8%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-4.0pt16.8%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt68%
- Before May 1, 2027+6.0pt50%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt46%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Florida State vs Alabama
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- LSU vs Ole Miss
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Which of these AI companies will shut down first??
- Manifold Markets prijst Perplexity op 38% per 19 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Which of these AI companies will shut down first? afgewikkeld?
- Which of these AI companies will shut down first? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2035 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Which of these AI companies will shut down first? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution Criteria