Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBefore 2050 71.2%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
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Verouderd3 jan 26, 07:09 UTC31 dec 50, 12:59 UTC
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Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran no longer be an Islamic Republic by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic by EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves based on the date when Wikipedia says the Islamic republic of Iran ends.
- May also resolve if there are substantial internal reforms that do not end the government but transform it substantially away from its current form.
- There must be an entry in the "Formation" section of Iran's Wikipedia page for this to count: