When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
One-OffRuimtevaart10j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
2031-2032 35.2%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
2031-2032 35.2%Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd11 jun 26, 08:13 UTC31 dec 36, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When will SpaceX's AI1 orbital data center be operational?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Worldcoin orbs become operational in Porto Velho, Brazil?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space?
Manifold MarketsNorth Carolina enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketIndiana enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketRegels
The market resolves to the period containing the first date on which a space-based computing facility meets ALL of the following:
- Power: At least 1 MW of electrical power dedicated to computing payloads (not total bus power).
- A single spacecraft or a constellation explicitly operated as one integrated compute cluster (e.g., optically interconnected and marketed/operated as a single facility) both qualify.
- Aggregating unrelated satellites does not.
- Operational: The facility has performed commercial or institutional computing workloads for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Demonstrators count only if serving external customers or sustained internal production workloads (e.g., the operator's own training/inference).
