Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2027 48%Koploper van 8 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
20
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+15.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd5 jan 26, 08:30 UTC31 dec 30, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
a lot of valuations in the market are high by historical standards. most pundits agree that this is due to strong believes about the value of AI and the promises of AGI.
- A "crash" is understood to be a more than 15% downward correction in the market within a week where the Economist (as proxy for good punditry) writes that this is mostly or exclusively due to changing believes in AI and AI-fuelled valuations.
Open markten
AI
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 269,8K
- 24u volume
- € 199,9K
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,3 mln.
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 4,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 107,5K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,3 mln.
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 85K
- 24u volume
- € 65,3K
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will the AI bubble crash??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2027 op 48% per 22 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will the AI bubble crash? afgewikkeld?
- When will the AI bubble crash? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will the AI bubble crash? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: a lot of valuations in the market are high by historical standards. most pundits agree that this is due to strong believes about the value of AI and the promises of AGI.