Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingLater than 2032 58.2%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
17
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+8.2 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd21 jul 25, 00:54 UTC21 jan 33, 00:44 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
KalshiSpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the earliest year in which a SpaceX Starship successfully lands on the Martian surface.
- A successful landing is defined as a Starship spacecraft touching down on Mars without catastrophic failure, as confirmed by official SpaceX communications or reputable news outlets.
- If no such landing occurs by the end of 2032, the market will resolve to "the named outcome." If SpaceX announces the cancellation of the Starship Mars program, the market will resolve to "Never."
- Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, has outlined ambitious plans for Mars exploration using the Starship spacecraft.
- In September 2024, Musk announced intentions to launch uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in 2026, aiming to test landing capabilities.
Open markten
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt94%
- Yes-1.2pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 19,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 263K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-10.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-12.0pt49%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt91%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt88%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt83%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+9.0pt34%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+6.0pt27%
- Before Apr 1, 202717%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 7 mln.
KALSHIWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Before Jan 1, 202878%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
- Totaal volume
- € 13K
- 24u volume
- € 8,1K
POLYMARKETDiscord IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2027-16.1pt62.6%
- 8–11B+6.7pt10.1%
- 11–14B-0.1pt8.1%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will Starship land on Mars??
- Manifold Markets prijst Later than 2032 op 58% per 20 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will Starship land on Mars? afgewikkeld?
- When will Starship land on Mars? wordt naar verwachting op 21 januari 2033 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will Starship land on Mars? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria