Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2026 66.8%-2.9ptKoploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
33
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+11.3 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 minuten geleden
13 apr 25, 13:37 UTC1 jan 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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KalshiRegels
Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.
- When will SSI launch its first product?
- For the purpose of this market, "product" means a paid product based on an AI foundation model, e.g. a chatbot, model API, or "wrapper app".
- This is meant to exclude minor, miscellaneous sources of revenue.
- Maybe this will create edge cases but I don't want to commit to resolving Yes the first year SSI has revenue >$0.
- Update 2025-04-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Product Scope Update:
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.5pt85%
- December 15,-5.5pt85%
- November 30,-10.5pt82%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 55,6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68%
- ChatGPT+0.8pt16.5%
- Grok+1.0pt6.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,4 mln.
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt92%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-9.0pt83%
+9 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-0.9pt2%
- <500B-0.2pt0%
+4 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude91.6%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 71,6K
- 24u volume
- € 34,8K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-10.5pt52%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2026 op 67% per 13 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? afgewikkeld?
- When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Safe Superintelligence has famously promised not to release any products until it has achieved its namesake.