Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNever announces a 2028 presidential run. 51.9%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
5
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd19 jan 26, 17:32 UTC30 dec 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Josh Shapiro announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats sweep the Senate, House, and Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExWill the Democrats win the Senate, Democrats win the House, and Republicans win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExWill the Democrats win the Senate, Republicans win the House, and Democrats win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExRegels
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if Kelly makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by Kelly or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site).
Open markten
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 697,7K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 471,3K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will Mark Kelly announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election??
- Manifold Markets prijst Never announces a 2028 presidential run. op 52% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will Mark Kelly announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election? afgewikkeld?
- When will Mark Kelly announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election? wordt naar verwachting op 30 december 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will Mark Kelly announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria