Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNever announces a 2028 presidential run. 51.9%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
7
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd19 jan 26, 17:32 UTC30 dec 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will this Democratic ticket win the 2028 Presidential Election?: Mark Kelly-Gretchen Whitmer
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Josh Shapiro announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats sweep the Senate, House, and Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExWill the Democrats win the Senate, Democrats win the House, and Republicans win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExRegels
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if Kelly makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by Kelly or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site).
