Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNever announces a 2028 presidential run. 65%Koploper van 11 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd24 dec 25, 11:57 UTC31 dec 28, 11:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be elected U.S. president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (aka AOC) be charged with a federal crime by February 1, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever become the Democratic nominee for president?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?
KalshiWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurRegels
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if AOC makes an official public announcement that she is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by AOC or an authorized spokesperson that she is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site).
Open markten
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 697,7K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 471,3K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election??
- Manifold Markets prijst Never announces a 2028 presidential run. op 65% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election? afgewikkeld?
- When will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria