Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingbefore Mar 31, 2028 75%Koploper van 14 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
42
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd23 aug 25, 16:30 UTC30 dec 28, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the nominee, and will he win?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExRegels
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if Gavin Newsom makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by Newsom or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site - gavinnewsom.com).
