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After June 2028 48.1%Koploper van 3 uitkomsten
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37
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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7d wijziging
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Bijgewerkt 21 uur geleden
Verouderd7 jul 26, 04:56 UTC1 jul 28, 07:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Currently, in July 2026, the top forecasting bots are slightly below or equal to top humans.
- Extrapolating their progress, they should leave humans in the dust between 1 and 2 years from now.
- Unless the best humans are already near the theoretical maximum of how good even a superintelligence can be at forecasting.
- In which case AI forecasting is about to plateau.
- This is a big deal because Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan (the "AI as Normal Technology" (AINT) folks) have set this as one of their lines in the sand.
- They claim that domains like chess and protein folding (and maybe math) are the exception and that in most domains, humans are already near the limit of how high performance can get.
